Golf betting system
From Derek F.
Similar to any form of sports betting, you can only gain an edge if you know
more about your selections than than the people who shape the prices, (the
bookmakers and the other bettors). To this end I have maintained a round by
round database of all golf events from the start of 1996.
The database includes the Asian, South African, Australian, Nationwide,
Challenge, US Seniors, European Seniors, LPGA, Ladies European Tour, European
Tour and the US PGA Tour.
If the bookmakers and other bettors can get the same information, how do I
get an edge?
The top 50 players in the world attract the vast majority of betting money
whenever they appear. Their form is well understood by the bookmakers and prices
rarely offer any value.
I focus on the 2nd and 3rd tier players who have a lower profile, less
celebrity appeal, or are unknowns in a given environment.
Players often appear on more than one tour. Putting results from events on any
given tour into a global context is a key element to gaining an edge. If any
Challenge Tour player turned up for your Saturday medal he would be probably be
the rightful favourite, but where should he rank when he moves up to the
European Tour? My algorithm re-assesses the relative strength of every field in
our database, based on the new information presented by the latest results.
Each week I find out more about players who appeared in an event in the past.
The importance of a player's scores decays with the passage of time and as new
results are known. Accurately giving each round or event a ranking in a global
context is where I gain a significant edge.
Quite often a player will move up from the Nationwide or Challenge Tour to
the main tours. Alternatively he may have form in Asia, Australia or South
Africa, but be less well known on the main European or US Tours. When this
happens bookmakers vary in their opinions of how that player will perform in his
new environment, depending on how much they know about him and the context he
has performed in the past. Prices can and do vary as much as from 33/1 to 200/1.
Marcus Fraser, the Russian Open winner, and Zach Johnson are good examples from
the 2003 betting year.
The major tours are covered by most bookmakers, giving everyone the
opportunity to place decent sized bets at value odds. Since 1997 I have achieved
a profit on turnover of between 33% and 50% each year.
Selections are proofed to the Racing Post in the UK, SystemSearch and
football-data.co.uk and my company consistently leads their league tables.
As long as we continue to bet at 80/1 on a player with true chances of 60/1,
or 33/1 with true chances of 25/1, we will continue to return a long term profit
on turnover of 33%.
Note: This package requires some betting at very long odds, often in the
range 25/1 to 150/1. This is a long-term betting strategy requiring strict
discipline in staking. We suggest a betting bank of 200 units so that 1 unit
represents 0.5% of your golf betting bank.